Louisiana Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
8% Dem
Rep 92%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Charles Booker | 4% |
| Andy Barr | 96% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jamie Davis | 12% |
| Julia Letlow | 88% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 6% | 10/28/2026: 4% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 8% | 10/28/2026: 12% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 93% | 10/28/2026: 96% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 91% | 10/28/2026: 88% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+4.0
Julia Letlow (R)
48%
Jamie Davis (D)
44%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Jamie Davis | Democrat |
| Julia Letlow | Republican |
Louisiana Senate race: polls over time
22 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
John Fleming 27.1%
Julia Letlow 48%
Bill Cassidy 20.8%
Mark Spencer 1.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fleming | 27.1% | 20 | 5/19/2026 |
| Julia Letlow | 48% | 20 | 9/19/2026 |
| Bill Cassidy | 20.8% | 19 | 5/11/2026 |
| Mark Spencer | 1.6% | 9 | 5/11/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates | 9/17–9/19 | 500 LV |
Julia Letlow (R)
Jamie Davis (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 7/21–7/22 | 518 RV |
Julia Letlow (R)
Jamie Davis (D)
|
| JMC Enterprises | 5/18–5/19 | 640 LV |
Julia Letlow (R)
John Fleming (R)
|
| BDPC | 5/10–5/11 | 600 LV |
Julia Letlow (R)
John Fleming (R)
Bill Cassidy (R)
Mark Spencer (R)
|
| Quantus Insights | 5/6–5/7 | 1,015 LV |
Julia Letlow (R)
John Fleming (R)
Bill Cassidy (R)
Mark Spencer (R)
|
| BDPC | 5/4–5/5 | 600 LV |
Julia Letlow (R)
John Fleming (R)
Bill Cassidy (R)
Mark Spencer (R)
|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 5/4–5/5 | 600 LV |
Julia Letlow (R)
Bill Cassidy (R)
John Fleming (R)
Mark Spencer (R)
|
| BDPC | 4/28–4/30 | 600 LV |
Julia Letlow (R)
John Fleming (R)
Bill Cassidy (R)
Mark Spencer (R)
|
| Emerson College | 4/24–4/26 | 500 LV |
John Fleming (R)
Julia Letlow (R)
Bill Cassidy (R)
Mark Spencer (R)
|
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 3/20–3/24 | 455 LV |
Julia Letlow (R)
John Fleming (R)
Bill Cassidy (R)
|