Kansas Senate race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
41% Dem
Rep 59%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Adam Hamilton | 40% |
| Roger Marshall | 61% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Adam Hamilton | 42% |
| Roger Marshall | 58% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 26% | 10/29/2026: 40% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 20% | 10/29/2026: 42% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 74% | 10/29/2026: 61% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 80% | 10/29/2026: 58% |
Poll average
9 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+1.9
Adam Hamilton (D)
46.6%
Roger Marshall (R)
44.8%
David Graham (L)
4%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton | Democrat |
| Roger Marshall | Republican |
| David C Graham | Libertarian |
Kansas Senate race: polls over time
17 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Adam Hamilton 46.8%
Roger Marshall 45.3%
David Graham 3.9%
Patrick Schmidt 4%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton | 46.8% | 16 | 10/14/2026 |
| Roger Marshall | 45.3% | 15 | 10/14/2026 |
| David Graham | 3.9% | 9 | 10/10/2026 |
| Patrick Schmidt | 4% | 3 | 7/16/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/13–10/14 | 1,200 LV |
Roger Marshall (R)
Adam Hamilton (D)
|
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/9–10/10 | 1,200 LV |
Adam Hamilton (D)
Roger Marshall (R)
David Graham (L)
|
| GBAO | 9/30–10/4 | 600 LV |
Adam Hamilton (D)
Roger Marshall (R)
David Graham (L)
|
| YouGov | 9/24–10/4 | 2,253 LV |
Adam Hamilton (D)
Roger Marshall (R)
|
| Trafalgar Group | 9/29–10/1 | 1,095 LV |
Adam Hamilton (D)
Roger Marshall (R)
David Graham (L)
|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 9/22–9/30 | 605 LV |
Adam Hamilton (D)
Roger Marshall (R)
David Graham (L)
|
| Wedgewood Polls | 9/22–9/24 | 500 LV |
Roger Marshall (R)
Adam Hamilton (D)
David Graham (L)
|
| Emerson College | 9/15–9/16 | 750 LV |
Roger Marshall (R)
Adam Hamilton (D)
David Graham (L)
|
| Global Strategy Group | 9/13–9/16 | 800 LV |
Adam Hamilton (D)
Roger Marshall (R)
David Graham (L)
|
| co/efficient | 9/8–9/10 | 915 LV |
Roger Marshall (R)
Adam Hamilton (D)
David Graham (L)
|