WI-07 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
4% Dem
Rep 96%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Fred Clark | 4% |
| Michael Alfonso | 96% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 14% | 10/29/2026: 4% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 82% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Michael Alfonso (R)
31%
Kevin Hermening (R)
10%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Michael Alfonso | Republican |
| Fred Clark | Democrat |
WI-07 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Kevin Hermening 10%
Michael Alfonso 31%
Jessi Ebben 5.5%
Niina Threlfall-Baum 5.4%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hermening | 10% | 2 | 7/12/2026 |
| Michael Alfonso | 31% | 2 | 7/12/2026 |
| Jessi Ebben | 5.5% | 1 | 5/1/2026 |
| Niina Threlfall-Baum | 5.4% | 1 | 5/1/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TIPP Insights | 7/2–7/12 | 481 RV |
Michael Alfonso (R)
Kevin Hermening (R)
|
| TIPP Insights | 4/28–5/1 | 275 RV |
Michael Alfonso (R)
Kevin Hermening (R)
Jessi Ebben (R)
Niina Threlfall-Baum (R)
|