WI-03 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
89% Dem
Rep 11%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Rebecca Cooke | 88% |
| Derrick Van Orden | 11% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Rebecca Cooke | 88% |
| Derrick Van Orden | 12% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 74% | 10/28/2026: 88% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 74% | 10/28/2026: 88% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 27% | 10/28/2026: 11% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 24% | 10/28/2026: 12% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+4.0
Rebecca Cooke (D)
50%
Derrick Van Orden (R)
46%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Derrick Van Orden | Republican |
| Rebecca Cooke | Democrat |
WI-03 House race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Rebecca Cooke 50%
Derrick Van Orden 46%
Emily Berge 22%
Rodney Rave 1%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Cooke | 50% | 4 | 6/25/2026 |
| Derrick Van Orden | 46% | 3 | 6/25/2026 |
| Emily Berge | 22% | 1 | 2/17/2026 |
| Rodney Rave | 1% | 1 | 2/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research | 6/20–6/25 | 535 LV |
Derrick Van Orden (R)
Rebecca Cooke (D)
|
| Impact Research | 5/26–5/31 | 500 LV |
Rebecca Cooke (D)
Derrick Van Orden (R)
|
| Impact Research | 2/12–2/17 | 500 LV |
Rebecca Cooke (D)
Derrick Van Orden (R)
|
| Impact Research | 2/12–2/17 | 471 LV |
Rebecca Cooke (D)
Emily Berge (D)
Rodney Rave (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/14–10/15 | 609 LV |
Derrick Van Orden (R)
Rebecca Cooke (D)
|