WA-03 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
88% Dem
Rep 12%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 89% |
| John Braun | 12% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 88% |
| John Braun | 12% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 76% | 10/28/2026: 89% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 74% | 10/28/2026: 88% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 26% | 10/28/2026: 12% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 24% | 10/28/2026: 12% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · Tied
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
46%
John Braun (R)
46%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| John Braun | Republican |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | Democrat |
WA-03 House race: polls over time
5 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
John Braun 44%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 45%
Brent Hennrich 14%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Braun | 44% | 5 | 10/21/2026 |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 45% | 5 | 10/21/2026 |
| Brent Hennrich | 14% | 1 | 11/12/2025 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 10/19–10/21 | 551 LV |
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
John Braun (R)
|
| DHM Research | 9/17–9/27 | 543 LV |
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
John Braun (R)
|
| Emerson College | 7/8–7/10 | 500 LV |
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
John Braun (R)
|
| co/efficient | 4/25–4/29 | 982 LV |
John Braun (R)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
|
| Gravis Marketing | 11/10–11/12 | 752 LV |
John Braun (R)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Brent Hennrich (D)
|
| Voter Sciences | 8/1–8/1 | 0 RV |
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
John Braun (R)
|