VA-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
91% Dem
Rep 9%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Elaine Luria | 91% |
| Jen Kiggans | 10% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Elaine Luria | 90% |
| Jen Kiggans | 9% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 89% | 10/28/2026: 91% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 78% | 10/28/2026: 90% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 12% | 10/28/2026: 10% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 10% | 10/28/2026: 9% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+3.0
Elaine G. Luria (D)
46%
Jen Kiggans (R)
43%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Elaine Luria | Democrat |
| Jen Kiggans | Republican |
| Geral D. "Bishop" Staten | Independent |
| J. Matt Baker | Independent |
| Write-In | Other |
VA-02 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Jen Kiggans 43%
Elaine G. Luria 46%
Elaine Luria 47%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jen Kiggans | 43% | 2 | 10/10/2026 |
| Elaine G. Luria | 46% | 1 | 10/10/2026 |
| Elaine Luria | 47% | 1 | 7/13/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University | 10/1–10/10 | 702 LV |
Elaine G. Luria (D)
Jen Kiggans (R)
|
| Tulchin Research | 7/9–7/13 | 700 LV |
Elaine Luria
Jen Kiggans (R)
|