UT-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
96% Dem
Rep 4%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Ben McAdams | 95% |
| Riley Owen | 5% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Ben McAdams | 97% |
| Riley Owen | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 91% | 10/29/2026: 95% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 85% | 10/29/2026: 97% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 10% | 10/29/2026: 5% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 15% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+41.5
Ben McAdams (D)
62.7%
Riley Owen (R)
21.2%
Jesse West (L)
4.7%
Elias Henry Montgomery
3.3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Riley Owen | Republican |
| Ben McAdams | Democrat |
| Jesse West | Libertarian |
| Elias Henry Montgomery | Other |
| Babak "Bobby" Darvish | Other |
UT-01 House race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ben McAdams 62.7%
Liban Mohamed 16.7%
Michael Farrell 4%
Nate Blouin 25.8%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben McAdams | 62.7% | 4 | 9/10/2026 |
| Liban Mohamed | 16.7% | 3 | 6/22/2026 |
| Michael Farrell | 4% | 3 | 6/22/2026 |
| Nate Blouin | 25.8% | 3 | 6/22/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research | 8/31–9/10 | 515 LV |
Ben McAdams (D)
Riley Owen (R)
Jesse West (L)
Elias Henry Montgomery
|
| VoteNexus | 6/21–6/22 | 299 LV |
Ben McAdams (D)
Nate Blouin (D)
Liban Mohamed (D)
Michael Farrell (D)
|
| Upswing Research | 5/27–5/29 | 402 LV |
Ben McAdams (D)
Nate Blouin (D)
Liban Mohamed (D)
Michael Farrell (D)
|
| Data for Progress | 3/23–3/26 | 381 LV |
Ben McAdams (D)
Nate Blouin (D)
Kathleen Riebe (D)
Eva Lopez Chavez (D)
Liban Mohamed (D)
Michael Farrell (D)
Luis Villarreal (D)
|