SD-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
4% Dem
Rep 96%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Nikki Gronli | 4% |
| Marty Jackley | 96% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 9% | 10/29/2026: 4% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 90% | 10/29/2026: 96% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+28.0
Marty Jackley (R)
60%
Nikki Gronli (D)
32%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Marty Jackley | Republican |
| Nikki Gronli | Democrat |
SD-01 House race: polls over time
4 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Marty Jackley 60%
James Bialota 12%
Nikki Gronli 32%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Jackley | 60% | 4 | 10/14/2026 |
| James Bialota | 12% | 2 | 4/11/2026 |
| Nikki Gronli | 32% | 2 | 10/14/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | 10/12–10/14 | 500 LV |
Marty Jackley (R)
Nikki Gronli (D)
|
| Lake Research Partners | 8/26–8/30 | 500 LV |
Marty Jackley (R)
Nikki Gronli (D)
|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 4/7–4/11 | 500 RV |
Marty Jackley (R)
James Bialota (R)
|
| Emerson College | 3/7–3/9 | 415 LV |
Marty Jackley (R)
James Bialota (R)
|