RI-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
95% Dem
Rep 5%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Seth Magaziner | 95% |
| Victor Mellor | 5% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 92% | 10/28/2026: 95% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 8% | 10/28/2026: 5% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+16.1
Seth M. Magaziner (D)
55.2%
Seth Magaziner
52%
Victor Mellor (R)
39.1%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Seth Magaziner | Democrat |
| Victor Mellor | Republican |
RI-02 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Victor Mellor 39.1%
Seth M. Magaziner 55.2%
Seth Magaziner 52%
Stephen Skoly 28.8%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Mellor | 39.1% | 3 | 10/11/2026 |
| Seth M. Magaziner | 55.2% | 1 | 10/11/2026 |
| Seth Magaziner | 52% | 1 | 10/8/2026 |
| Stephen Skoly | 28.8% | 1 | 8/11/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/8–10/11 | 406 LV |
Seth M. Magaziner (D)
Victor Mellor (R)
|
| Embold Research | 10/5–10/8 | 417 LV |
Seth Magaziner
Victor Mellor (R)
|
| Embold Research | 8/3–8/11 | — LV |
Stephen Skoly (R)
Victor Mellor (R)
|