PA-10 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
80% Dem
Rep 20%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Janelle Stelson | 81% |
| Scott Perry | 20% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Janelle Stelson | 80% |
| Scott Perry | 20% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 69% | 10/28/2026: 81% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 69% | 10/28/2026: 80% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 31% | 10/28/2026: 20% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 33% | 10/28/2026: 20% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+1.3
Janelle Stelson (D)
48.3%
Scott Perry (R)
47%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | Democrat |
| Scott Perry | Republican |
PA-10 House race: polls over time
5 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Scott Perry 47%
Janelle Stelson 48.3%
Janelle Stetson 51%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Perry | 47% | 5 | 10/22/2026 |
| Janelle Stelson | 48.3% | 4 | 10/22/2026 |
| Janelle Stetson | 51% | 1 | 4/23/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 10/16–10/22 | 404 LV |
Scott Perry (R)
Janelle Stelson (D)
|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | 10/5–10/11 | 300 LV |
Janelle Stelson (D)
Scott Perry (R)
|
| Franklin & Marshall College | 9/9–9/20 | 390 RV |
Janelle Stelson (D)
Scott Perry (R)
|
| Normington Petts & Associates | 4/20–4/23 | 400 RV |
Janelle Stetson
Scott Perry (R)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 11/18–11/19 | 549 RV |
Scott Perry (R)
Janelle Stelson (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 7/10–7/11 | 559 A |
Scott Perry (R)
Janelle Stelson (D)
|