PA-07 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
86% Dem
Rep 14%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Bob Brooks | 85% |
| Ryan Mackenzie | 14% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Bob Brooks | 86% |
| Ryan Mackenzie | 14% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/3/2026: 73% | 10/28/2026: 85% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 72% | 10/28/2026: 86% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 28% | 10/28/2026: 14% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 30% | 10/28/2026: 14% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+5.1
Bob Brooks (D)
49.2%
Ryan E. Mackenzie (R)
44.2%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Bob Brooks | Democrat |
| Ryan Mackenzie | Republican |
PA-07 House race: polls over time
7 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Bob Brooks 49.3%
Carol Obando-Derstine 8%
Lamont McClure 17%
Ryan Crosswell 16%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Brooks | 49.3% | 7 | 10/22/2026 |
| Carol Obando-Derstine | 8% | 4 | 5/17/2026 |
| Lamont McClure | 17% | 4 | 5/17/2026 |
| Ryan Crosswell | 16% | 4 | 5/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 10/16–10/22 | 401 LV |
Bob Brooks (D)
Ryan E. Mackenzie (R)
|
| Franklin & Marshall College | 9/9–9/20 | 357 RV |
Ryan Mackenzie
Bob Brooks (D)
|
| GBAO Strategies | 6/29–7/2 | 550 LV |
Ryan Mackenzie
Bob Brooks (D)
|
| Tavern Research | 5/17–5/17 | 613 LV |
Bob Brooks (D)
Lamont McClure (D)
Ryan Crosswell (D)
Carol Obando-Derstine (D)
|
| GBAO | 4/16–4/19 | 400 LV |
Bob Brooks (D)
Lamont McClure (D)
Carol Obando-Derstine (D)
Ryan Crosswell (D)
|
| GBAO | 2/25–3/1 | 500 LV |
Lamont McClure (D)
Carol Obando-Derstine (D)
Bob Brooks (D)
Ryan Crosswell (D)
|
| Change Research | 12/16–12/19 | 892 LV |
Lamont McClure (D)
Bob Brooks (D)
Carol Obando-Derstine (D)
Ryan Crosswell (D)
|