PA-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
44% Dem
Rep 56%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Bob Harvie | 42% |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 57% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Bob Harvie | 44% |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 54% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 50% | 10/28/2026: 42% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 51% | 10/28/2026: 44% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/3/2026: 52% | 10/28/2026: 57% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 56% | 10/28/2026: 54% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+1.2
Bob Harvie (D)
47.1%
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
45.9%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Bob Harvie | Democrat |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | Republican |
PA-01 House race: polls over time
6 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Bob Harvie 47.1%
Brian Fitzpatrick 45.9%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Harvie | 47.1% | 6 | 10/22/2026 |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 45.9% | 6 | 10/22/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 10/16–10/22 | 400 LV |
Bob Harvie (D)
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
|
| Global Strategy Group | 10/1–10/8 | 1,032 LV |
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Bob Harvie (D)
|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 9/11–9/14 | 400 RV |
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Bob Harvie (D)
|
| GQR | 8/19–8/23 | 400 LV |
Bob Harvie (D)
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
|
| Global Strategy Group | 8/5–8/9 | 500 LV |
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Bob Harvie (D)
|
| Global Strategy Group | 3/19–3/22 | 400 LV |
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Bob Harvie (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/10–10/11 | 585 LV |
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Bob Harvie (D)
|