NY-04 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
91% Dem
Rep 9%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Laura Gillen | 92% |
| Jeanine Driscoll | 9% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Laura Gillen | 90% |
| Jeanine Driscoll | 9% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 74% | 10/28/2026: 92% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 73% | 10/28/2026: 90% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 25% | 10/28/2026: 9% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 24% | 10/28/2026: 9% |
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Laura Gillen | Democrat |
| Jeanine Driscoll | Republican |
| Blay Tarnoff | Libertarian |
NY-04 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Dem 46%
Rep 41%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dem | 46% | 1 | 2/17/2026 |
| Rep | 41% | 1 | 2/17/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2/9–2/17 | 500 LV |
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