NM-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
97% Dem
Rep 3%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Melanie Stansbury | 96% |
| Didi Okpareke | 3% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 91% | 10/28/2026: 96% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 7% | 10/28/2026: 3% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Melanie Stansbury
53%
Ndidiamaka Okpareke (R)
35%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Didi Okpareke | Republican |
| Melanie Stansbury | Democrat |
NM-01 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Melanie Stansbury 53%
Ndidiamaka Okpareke 35%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melanie Stansbury | 53% | 1 | 10/9/2026 |
| Ndidiamaka Okpareke | 35% | 1 | 10/9/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 10/1–10/9 | 380 LV |
Melanie Stansbury
Ndidiamaka Okpareke (R)
|