MI-07 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
73% Dem
Rep 27%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | William Lawrence | 74% |
| Tom Barrett | 27% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | William Lawrence | 74% |
| Tom Barrett | 26% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 83% | 10/29/2026: 74% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 80% | 10/29/2026: 74% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 17% | 10/29/2026: 27% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 12% | 10/29/2026: 26% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+8.0
William Lawrence (D)
53%
Tom Barrett (R)
45%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| William Lawrence | Democrat |
| Tom Barrett | Republican |
| Shane Dedrick | Green |
MI-07 House race: polls over time
8 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
William Lawrence 53%
Bridget Brink 30%
Matt Maasdam 31.5%
Tom Barrett 45%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Lawrence | 53% | 6 | 10/14/2026 |
| Bridget Brink | 30% | 5 | 6/27/2026 |
| Matt Maasdam | 31.5% | 5 | 6/30/2026 |
| Tom Barrett | 45% | 4 | 10/14/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/12–10/14 | 314 LV |
William Lawrence (D)
Tom Barrett (R)
|
| Global Strategy Group | 8/11–8/13 | 500 LV |
William Lawrence (D)
Tom Barrett (R)
|
| Data for Progress | 6/24–6/30 | 772 LV |
Tom Barrett (R)
Matt Maasdam (D)
|
| GQR | 6/22–6/27 | 400 LV |
Bridget Brink (D)
William Lawrence (D)
Matt Maasdam (D)
|
| Data for Progress | 4/23–4/28 | 533 LV |
William Lawrence (D)
Bridget Brink (D)
Matt Maasdam (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 4/24–4/25 | 519 RV |
Bridget Brink (D)
Tom Barrett (R)
|
| GQR | 3/22–3/27 | 500 LV |
Bridget Brink (D)
William Lawrence (D)
Matt Maasdam (D)
|
| Impact Research | 3/4–3/9 | 500 LV |
William Lawrence (D)
Bridget Brink (D)
Matt Maasdam (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/27–10/28 | 557 RV |
Tom Barrett (R)
Bridget Brink (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/27–10/28 | 557 RV |
Tom Barrett (R)
Matt Maasdam (D)
|