MA-04 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
98% Dem
Rep 2%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jake Auchincloss | 98% |
| Tom Stalcup | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 94% | 10/29/2026: 98% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 4% | 10/29/2026: 2% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Jake Auchincloss (D)
64%
Jason Poulos (D)
17%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Jake Auchincloss | Democrat |
| Thomas Stalcup | Republican |
MA-04 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Jake Auchincloss 64%
Jason Poulos 17%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Auchincloss | 64% | 1 | 6/29/2026 |
| Jason Poulos | 17% | 1 | 6/29/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 6/25–6/29 | 400 LV |
Jake Auchincloss (D)
Jason Poulos (D)
|