IA-03 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
83% Dem
Rep 17%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Sarah Trone Garriott | 84% |
| Zach Nunn | 18% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Sarah Trone Garriott | 83% |
| Zach Nunn | 16% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 69% | 10/28/2026: 84% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 68% | 10/28/2026: 83% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 32% | 10/28/2026: 18% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 23% | 10/28/2026: 16% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+6.0
Zach Nunn (R)
48%
Sarah Trone Garriott (D)
42%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Zach Nunn | Republican |
| Sarah Trone Garriott | Democrat |
IA-03 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Sarah Trone Garriott 42%
Zach Nunn 48%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott | 42% | 1 | 3/14/2026 |
| Zach Nunn | 48% | 1 | 3/14/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | 3/12–3/14 | 400 LV |
Zach Nunn (R)
Sarah Trone Garriott (D)
|
| Public Policy Polling | 9/17–9/18 | 717 RV |
Jennifer Konfrst (D)
Zach Nunn (R)
|