HI-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
97% Dem
Rep 3%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Ed Case | 97% |
| Adriel Lam | 3% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 94% | 10/28/2026: 97% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 6% | 10/28/2026: 3% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Jarrett Keohokalole (D)
36.2%
Ed Case (D)
35.4%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ed Case | Democrat |
| Adriel Lam | Republican |
| Jordan S. Conley | Green |
| Nathan M. Berning | Other |
HI-01 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Ed Case 35.4%
Jarrett Keohokalole 36.2%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Case | 35.4% | 2 | 7/24/2026 |
| Jarrett Keohokalole | 36.2% | 2 | 7/24/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling | 7/24–7/24 | 278 LV |
Jarrett Keohokalole (D)
Ed Case (D)
|
| Blueprint Polling | 7/7–7/8 | — LV |
Ed Case (D)
Jarrett Keohokalole (D)
|
| Data for Progress | 10/6–10/14 | 366 LV |
Ed Case (D)
Della Au Belatti (D)
Jarrett Keohokalole (D)
|