FL-19 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
4% Dem
Rep 96%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Victor Arias | 4% |
| Jim Schwartzel | 94% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 10% | 10/28/2026: 4% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 90% | 10/28/2026: 94% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Catalina Lauf (R)
19.4%
Jim Schwartzel (R)
17.6%
James Oberweis (R)
13.4%
Chris Collins (R)
8.1%
David Madison Cawthorn (R)
5.6%
Ola Hawatmeh (R)
3.9%
John Strand (R)
3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Victor Arias | Democrat |
| Jim Schwartzel | Republican |
| Seth Haskin | Independent |
FL-19 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Catalina Lauf 19.5%
James Oberweis 13.4%
Jim Schwartzel 17.6%
Chris Collins 8.1%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalina Lauf | 19.5% | 3 | 8/6/2026 |
| James Oberweis | 13.4% | 3 | 8/6/2026 |
| Jim Schwartzel | 17.6% | 3 | 8/6/2026 |
| Chris Collins | 8.1% | 2 | 8/6/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal Political | 8/5–8/6 | 403 LV |
Catalina Lauf (R)
Jim Schwartzel (R)
James Oberweis (R)
|
| Victory Insights | 8/4–8/6 | — LV |
Jim Schwartzel (R)
Catalina Lauf (R)
James Oberweis (R)
Chris Collins (R)
David Madison Cawthorn (R)
Ola Hawatmeh (R)
John Strand (R)
|
| Victory Insights | 6/20–6/21 | 350 LV |
Jim Schwartzel (R)
James Oberweis (R)
David Madison Cawthorn (R)
Catalina Lauf (R)
Mike Pedersen (R)
John Strand (R)
Chris Collins (R)
Ola Hawatmeh (R)
|