FL-16 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
24% Dem
Rep 76%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Kelly Kirschner | 24% |
| Sydney Gruters | 76% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 24% | 10/28/2026: 24% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 70% | 10/28/2026: 76% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+4.0
Sydney Gruters (R)
43%
Kelly Kirschner (D)
39%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Sydney Gruters | Republican |
| Kelly Kirschner | Democrat |
| Mark Davis | Independent |
FL-16 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Kelly Kirschner 39%
Sydney Gruters 43%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Kirschner | 39% | 2 | 10/2/2026 |
| Sydney Gruters | 43% | 2 | 10/2/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 10/1–10/2 | 530 RV |
Kelly Kirschner (D)
Sydney Gruters (R)
|
| SEA Polling | 8/25–8/29 | 400 LV |
Kelly Kirschner (D)
Sydney Gruters (R)
|