FL-04 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
17% Dem
Rep 83%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | LaShonda Holloway | 17% |
| Aaron Bean | 82% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 20% | 10/28/2026: 17% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 79% | 10/28/2026: 82% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
LaShonda Holloway (D)
41%
Michael Kirwan (D)
11%
Brit Robinson (D)
4%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Aaron Bean | Republican |
| LaShonda Holloway | Democrat |
| Mike Sell | Other |
| Todd Schaefer | Independent |
FL-04 House race: polls over time
1 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Brit Robinson 4%
LaShonda Holloway 41%
Michael Kirwan 11%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brit Robinson | 4% | 1 | 7/15/2026 |
| LaShonda Holloway | 41% | 1 | 7/15/2026 |
| Michael Kirwan | 11% | 1 | 7/15/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Tyson Group | 7/15–7/15 | 400 LV |
LaShonda Holloway (D)
Michael Kirwan (D)
Brit Robinson (D)
|