CT-01 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
98% Dem
Rep 2%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Luke Bronin | 98% |
| Amy Chai | 2% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 92% | 10/28/2026: 98% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 6% | 10/28/2026: 2% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Luke Bronin (D)
38%
John Larson (D)
30%
Jillian Gilchrest (D)
10%
Ruth Fortune (D)
4%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Luke Bronin | Democrat |
| Amy Chai | Republican |
| Mary L. Sanders | Green |
| Mark Stewart Greenstein | Other |
CT-01 House race: polls over time
2 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Jillian Gilchrest 10%
John Larson 30%
Luke Bronin 38%
Ruth Fortune 4%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jillian Gilchrest | 10% | 2 | 5/21/2026 |
| John Larson | 30% | 2 | 5/21/2026 |
| Luke Bronin | 38% | 2 | 5/21/2026 |
| Ruth Fortune | 4% | 1 | 5/21/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 5/18–5/21 | 500 LV |
Luke Bronin (D)
John Larson (D)
Jillian Gilchrest (D)
Ruth Fortune (D)
|
| GQR | 1/27–2/1 | 400 LV |
John Larson (D)
Luke Bronin (D)
Jillian Gilchrest (D)
|