CA-21 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
94% Dem
Rep 6%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Jim Costa | 93% |
| Kyle Kirkland | 7% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Jim Costa | 95% |
| Kyle Kirkland | 5% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/5/2026: 82% | 10/29/2026: 93% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 88% | 10/29/2026: 95% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/18/2026: 17% | 10/29/2026: 7% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 12% | 10/29/2026: 5% |
Poll average
No polls of this race yet.
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Kyle Kirkland | Republican |
| Jim Costa | Democrat |