AZ-05 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
14% Dem
Rep 86%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Elizabeth Lee | 14% |
| Mark Lamb | 86% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 14% | 10/29/2026: 14% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 80% | 10/29/2026: 86% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · —
Mark Lamb (R)
41.5%
Daniel Keenan (R)
38.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Elizabeth Lee | Democrat |
| Mark Lamb | Republican |
AZ-05 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Daniel Keenan 38.5%
Mark Lamb 41.5%
Jay Feely 3.1%
Travis Grantham 1.4%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Keenan | 38.5% | 3 | 7/7/2026 |
| Mark Lamb | 41.5% | 3 | 7/7/2026 |
| Jay Feely | 3.1% | 1 | 12/5/2025 |
| Travis Grantham | 1.4% | 1 | 12/5/2025 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remington | 7/5–7/7 | 650 LV |
Daniel Keenan (R)
Mark Lamb (R)
|
| Remington | 6/22–6/24 | 1,094 LV |
Mark Lamb (R)
Daniel Keenan (R)
|
| Victory Insights | 12/2–12/5 | 500 LV |
Mark Lamb (R)
Jay Feely (R)
Daniel Keenan (R)
Travis Grantham (R)
|
| NextGenP | 10/10–10/12 | 830 LV |
Mark Lamb (R)
Jay Feely (R)
Travis Grantham (R)
Daniel Keenan (R)
Alex Stovall (R)
|
| NextGenP | 6/4–6/4 | 953 LV |
Mark Lamb (R)
Jay Feely (R)
Travis Grantham (R)
Monte Lyons (R)
Daniel Keenan (R)
|
| NextGenP | 2/26–2/28 | 892 LV |
Mark Lamb (R)
John Lewis (R)
Jake Hoffman (R)
Travis Grantham (R)
Justin Olson (R)
|
| Victory Insights | 2/14–2/16 | — LV |
Jake Hoffman (R)
Michael Way (R)
Travis Grantham (R)
Justin Olson (R)
Travis Padilla (R)
|