AR-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
19% Dem
Rep 81%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Chris Jones | 19% |
| French Hill | 80% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 12% | 10/29/2026: 19% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 86% | 10/29/2026: 80% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+4.0
French Hill (R)
52%
Chris Jones (D)
48%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| French Hill | Republican |
| Chris Jones | Democrat |
AR-02 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Chris Jones 48%
French Hill 52%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Jones | 48% | 3 | 10/14/2026 |
| French Hill | 52% | 3 | 10/14/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 10/12–10/14 | 383 LV |
French Hill (R)
Chris Jones (D)
|
| Hendrix College | 8/12–8/13 | 1,112 LV |
Chris Jones (D)
French Hill (R)
|
| 2040 Strategy Group | 4/28–5/8 | — LV |
Chris Jones (D)
French Hill (R)
|