AL-02 House race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
46% Dem
Rep 54%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Shomari Figures | 46% |
| Rhett Marques | 54% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 80% | 10/28/2026: 46% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 24% | 10/28/2026: 54% |
Poll average
1 polls in the last 30 days of polling · Tied
Rhett Marques (R)
47%
Shomari Figures (D)
47%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Shomari Figures | Democrat |
| Rhett Marques | Republican |
AL-02 House race: polls over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Rhett Marques 47%
Shomari Figures 47%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Marques | 47% | 3 | 8/31/2026 |
| Shomari Figures | 47% | 3 | 8/31/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | 8/24–8/31 | — LV |
Rhett Marques (R)
Shomari Figures (D)
|
| DCCC Targeting Team | 7/29–7/30 | 421 LV |
Rhett Marques (R)
Shomari Figures (D)
|
| Impact Research | 6/22–6/25 | 400 LV |
Rhett Marques (R)
Shomari Figures (D)
|