Wisconsin governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
84% Dem
Rep 16%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | David Crowley | 84% |
| Tom Tiffany | 17% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | David Crowley | 84% |
| Tom Tiffany | 14% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 80% | 10/29/2026: 84% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 78% | 10/29/2026: 84% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 18% | 10/29/2026: 17% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 16% | 10/29/2026: 14% |
Poll average
4 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+4.8
David Crowley (D)
49.2%
Tom Tiffany (R)
44.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| David Crowley | Democrat |
| Tom Tiffany | Republican |
Wisconsin governor's race: polls over time
43 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Tom Tiffany 44%
David Crowley 49.5%
Francesca Hong 43.4%
Mandela Barnes 21.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Tiffany | 44% | 32 | 10/22/2026 |
| David Crowley | 49.5% | 23 | 10/22/2026 |
| Francesca Hong | 43.4% | 16 | 8/6/2026 |
| Mandela Barnes | 21.5% | 15 | 8/6/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School | 10/14–10/22 | 668 LV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| YouGov | 9/22–10/9 | 1,715 RV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| Z to A Research | 9/28–10/1 | 662 LV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| Marquette University Law School | 9/16–9/23 | 692 LV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| Marquette University Law School | 8/12–8/20 | 738 LV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| Marquette University Law School | 8/12–8/20 | 891 RV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| TIPP Insights | 8/14–8/18 | 1,119 LV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| TIPP Insights | 8/14–8/18 | 1,434 RV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| Platform Communications | 8/12–8/13 | 500 LV |
David Crowley (D)
Tom Tiffany (R)
|
| State Navigate | 8/3–8/6 | 1,473 LV |
Francesca Hong (D)
David Crowley (D)
Kelda Roys (D)
Mandela Barnes (D)
Joel Brennan (D)
Sara Rodriguez (D)
Missy Hughes (D)
|