Texas governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
37% Dem
Rep 63%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Gina Hinojosa | 36% |
| Greg Abbott | 65% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Gina Hinojosa | 38% |
| Greg Abbott | 62% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 15% | 10/29/2026: 36% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 15% | 10/29/2026: 38% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 86% | 10/29/2026: 65% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/2/2026: 81% | 10/29/2026: 62% |
Poll average
22 polls in the last 30 days of polling · R+1.8
Greg Abbott (R)
48.6%
Gina Hinojosa (D)
46.7%
Pat Dixon (L)
2.3%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa | Democrat |
| Greg Abbott | Republican |
| Pat Dixon | Libertarian |
Texas governor's race: polls over time
65 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Gina Hinojosa 46.9%
Greg Abbott 48.9%
Pat Dixon 1.7%
Chris Bell 12.6%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa | 46.9% | 62 | 10/26/2026 |
| Greg Abbott | 48.9% | 60 | 10/26/2026 |
| Pat Dixon | 1.7% | 21 | 10/20/2026 |
| Chris Bell | 12.6% | 6 | 3/2/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov Blue | 10/21–10/26 | 1,000 LV |
Gina Hinojosa (D)
Greg Abbott (R)
|
| ActiVote | 10/17–10/21 | 400 LV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
|
| YouGov | 10/13–10/21 | 1,000 RV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
|
| VoteHub/Verasight | 10/1–10/20 | 601 LV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
Pat Dixon (L)
|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 10/15–10/19 | 1,398 LV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
|
| Emerson College | 10/17–10/19 | 1,000 LV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
Pat Dixon (L)
|
| Pollfinity | 10/15–10/18 | 278 LV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
Pat Dixon (L)
|
| Slingshot Strategies | 10/15–10/18 | 969 LV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
Pat Dixon (L)
|
| YouGov | 10/8–10/16 | 1,460 LV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
|
| ActiVote | 9/30–10/14 | 400 LV |
Greg Abbott (R)
Gina Hinojosa (D)
|