New Mexico governor's race
Election day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Market odds
Chance of winning, from prediction-market prices
95% Dem
Rep 5%
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | Deb Haaland | 95% |
| Greggory D. Hull | 6% | |
| Polymarket (opens in a new tab) | Deb Haaland | 95% |
| Gregg Hull | 5% |
View data as table
| Series | First | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Democrats | 5/2/2026: 90% | 10/28/2026: 95% |
| Polymarket · Democrats | 5/1/2026: 86% | 10/28/2026: 95% |
| Kalshi · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 9% | 10/28/2026: 6% |
| Polymarket · Republicans | 5/1/2026: 11% | 10/28/2026: 5% |
Poll average
2 polls in the last 30 days of polling · D+6.5
Deb Haaland (D)
48%
Gregg Hull (R)
41.5%
On the ballot
Results appear here as votes are counted on election night.
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Deb Haaland | Democrat |
| Gregg Hull | Republican |
New Mexico governor's race: polls over time
13 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
Deb Haaland 48%
Gregg Hull 41.5%
Sam Bregman 27%
Doug Turner 25.5%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deb Haaland | 48% | 10 | 10/9/2026 |
| Gregg Hull | 41.5% | 7 | 10/9/2026 |
| Sam Bregman | 27% | 5 | 4/24/2026 |
| Doug Turner | 25.5% | 3 | 5/20/2026 |
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 10/1–10/9 | 1,125 LV |
Deb Haaland (D)
Gregg Hull (R)
|
| SurveyUSA | 9/25–9/30 | 567 LV |
Deb Haaland (D)
Gregg Hull (R)
|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 8/21–8/28 | 516 LV |
Deb Haaland (D)
Gregg Hull (R)
|
| BSP Research | 7/22–8/7 | 800 RV |
Deb Haaland (D)
Greg Hull
|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 7/13–7/15 | 400 LV |
Deb Haaland (D)
Gregg Hull (R)
|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 5/18–5/20 | 400 LV |
Gregg Hull (R)
Doug Turner (R)
Duke Rodriguez (R)
|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 4/24–5/1 | 528 LV |
Gregg Hull (R)
Doug Turner (R)
Duke Rodriguez (R)
|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 4/17–4/24 | 534 LV |
Deb Haaland (D)
Sam Bregman (D)
|
| Emerson College | 4/18–4/19 | 432 LV |
Gregg Hull (R)
Duke Rodriguez (R)
Doug Turner (R)
|
| Emerson College | 4/18–4/19 | 568 LV |
Deb Haaland (D)
Sam Bregman (D)
|