2028 Republican (California) Presidential primary
Our 21-day average puts JD Vance at 43%, Kristi Noem at 4%, Marco Rubio at 15%, Nikki Haley at 3%, based on 3 polls ending between 8/5/2025 and 3/3/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
2028 Republican (California) Presidential primary over time
3 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
JD Vance 43%
Kristi Noem 4%
Marco Rubio 15%
Nikki Haley 3%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 43% | 3 | 3/3/2026 |
| Kristi Noem | 4% | 3 | 3/3/2026 |
| Marco Rubio | 15% | 3 | 3/3/2026 |
| Nikki Haley | 3% | 3 | 3/3/2026 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 3 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| JD Vance | 44.8% |
| Marco Rubio | 10.1% |
| Ron DeSantis | 6.2% |
| Ted Cruz | 3.9% |
| Nikki Haley | 3.6% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 2.8% |
| Kristi Noem | 2.3% |
| Robert F. Kennedy | 10.1% |
Individual polls (3)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/3/2026 |
TrueDot
for Politico | UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research |
362 RV |
JD Vance (R)
Marco Rubio (R)
Kristi Noem (R)
Ron DeSantis (R)
Tucker Carlson (R)
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Nikki Haley (R)
Tim Scott (R)
Josh Hawley (R)
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)
Mike Pompeo (R)
Glenn Youngkin (R)
Tom Cotton (R)
|
| 12/2/2025 |
Emerson College
for Inside California Politics |
339 LV |
JD Vance (R)
Marco Rubio (R)
Robert F. Kennedy (R)
Ron DeSantis (R)
Nikki Haley (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
Kristi Noem (R)
|
| 8/5/2025 | Emerson College | 221 LV |
JD Vance (R)
Robert F. Kennedy (R)
Ron DeSantis (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Nikki Haley (R)
Marco Rubio (R)
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
Kristi Noem (R)
Tulsi Gabbard (R)
Brian Kemp (R)
Scott Bessent (R)
Glenn Youngkin (R)
|