2026 Texas Democratic Senate race
Our 21-day average puts James Talarico at 45.7%, Jasmine Crockett at 47.9%, Colin Allred at 33.8%, Beto O'Rourke at 40%, based on 24 polls ending between 7/7/2025 and 3/2/2026. Dots on the chart are individual polls; the line is the rolling average. How to read these numbers.
2026 Texas Democratic Senate race over time
24 polls · 21-day rolling average · dots are individual polls
James Talarico 45.7%
Jasmine Crockett 47.9%
Colin Allred 33.8%
Beto O'Rourke 40%
View data as table
| Choice | Latest average | Polls | Latest poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | 45.7% | 18 | 3/2/2026 |
| Jasmine Crockett | 47.9% | 17 | 3/2/2026 |
| Colin Allred | 33.8% | 10 | 10/1/2025 |
| Beto O'Rourke | 40% | 6 | 10/1/2025 |
Average result
Unweighted mean across 24 matching polls
View data as table
| Choice | % |
|---|---|
| James Talarico | 39.2% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 44.8% |
| Colin Allred | 36.6% |
| Beto O'Rourke | 36.3% |
| Ahmad Hassan | 2.5% |
| Joaquin Castro | 19.3% |
| Emily Morgul | 4% |
| Valoree Swanson | 3% |
Individual polls (24)
| End date | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/2/2026 | YouGov | 2,408 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 2/27/2026 |
Emerson College
for Nexstar Media |
— LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/25/2026 |
Public Policy Polling
for Lone Star Rising PAC |
599 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 2/24/2026 | Blueprint Polling | 472 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/22/2026 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 959 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/22/2026 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 1,117 RV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 2/16/2026 | The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 369 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
Ahmad Hassan (D)
|
| 1/31/2026 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov | 550 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 1/21/2026 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
1,290 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 1/12/2026 |
Emerson College
for Nexstar Media |
413 RV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 12/11/2025 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,600 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 10/1/2025 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs | 478 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Beto O'Rourke
|
| 10/1/2025 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs | 478 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 10/1/2025 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs | 478 LV |
Colin Allred (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 10/1/2025 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs | 478 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Beto O'Rourke
James Talarico (D)
Colin Allred (D)
|
| 10/1/2025 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs | 478 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Colin Allred (D)
|
| 10/1/2025 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs | 478 LV |
Beto O'Rourke
James Talarico (D)
|
| 9/24/2025 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 377 RV |
Colin Allred (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 8/29/2025 |
Slingshot Strategies
for Texas Public Opinion Research |
843 RV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
James Talarico (D)
Beto O'Rourke
Joaquin Castro (D)
Colin Allred (D)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Emerson College | 370 LV |
Colin Allred (D)
Emily Morgul (D)
Valoree Swanson
Terry Virts (D)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,500 LV |
Beto O'Rourke
Colin Allred (D)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,500 LV |
Colin Allred (D)
James Talarico (D)
|
| 8/12/2025 | Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 1,500 LV |
Colin Allred (D)
Joaquin Castro (D)
|
| 7/7/2025 | National Republican Senatorial Committee | 566 LV |
Jasmine Crockett (D)
Colin Allred (D)
Joaquin Castro (D)
Beto O'Rourke
|